Why is starmer so desperate to continue the ukraine war?

This is part one of a two part series looking at the desperate game the British ruling class is playing over Ukraine.

The shift in tactics by the Trump administration over Ukraine has caught many of the US’s NATO “partners” somewhat by surprise. The row between Trump, Vance and Zelensky that took place in the White House last week has convinced many that some kind of major split is taking place between the US and the European states. This view, whilst understandable, is incorrect as it mistakes a shift in tactics by the US imperialists for a fundamental change. The Ukraine war was never meant to last this long and be as expensive as it has been. The plan was (as we have stated on numerous occasions) not for the Ukrainians to win on the battlefield but for the job to be done by the sanctions regime. The process was meant to run as follows:

1) The Ukrainian forces (under NATO direction) launch an assault on the Donbas in late February 2022. This would then trigger either one of two things (A) A Russian intervention which could then be used as a justification for the imposition of a series of economic sanctions designed to trigger Russian economic collapse or (B) That the Russians would not act thus enabling the NATO controlled Ukrainian forces (they hoped) to conquer Donbas and place Crimea under threat. Either one of these scenarios would result in significant destabilisation within Russia itself which would lead to a potential collapse of the Putin led system.

2) The sanctions regime would do most of the work. The actual military component of either of the scenarios outlined above would be quite limited. What was planned for was a series of spectacular looking events that could be sold to the worlds media as a great victory. What the US and British imperialists hoped for was to trigger a split within the hierarchy of the Russia state itself. This would be done via the pressure of the sanctions which Biden imposed (remember he was going to turn the Rouble to rubble) in the hope that this would trigger a revolt of the Russian capitalist class and their allies within the state structure. The actual military component of this operation was not going to be the main element here. This leads us to point 3

3) The valuing of optics above all else. The imperialists are often (deservedly) mocked for their obsessions with PR victories seemingly over everything else. These do feed into a wider strategy and it is one that has worked for the imperialists over the past three decades of colour revolutions. The presentation of certain staged events by the imperialist media as a means of mobilising the networks established within countries like Russia by the intelligence agencies of the west, in their disguise as NGO’s. This would then create a real sense of crisis an imminent “regime collapse” which would then lead to the palace coup the imperialists were seeking.

What has happened since 2022 has shown that all these plans ultimately did not work. The Russian economy survived the sanctions barrage and the Russian state itself did not split. The Russian capitalist class, whilst continuing to retard economic progress, have not been able to mount any kind of coherent challenge to the Bonapartist system run by the Putin group. The street protests of the early period of the Special Military Operation (SMO) have led to nothing other than relatively small sized demonstrations in Moscow and St Petersburg. The various events that were staged to look like victories on the battlefield quickly petered out once the Russian government realised that they could not negotiate with Ukraine and that the war would need to won on the battlefield. The Kharkov offensive of September 2022 was the last time that this optics game came close to being convincing because the Russians did actually have to retreat, not in chaos of course, but in good order. The partial mobilisation that occurred afterwards solved the manpower issues and the consequent recruitment drive removed any advantage the NATO run Ukrainian forces had in terms of numbers and the “big offensive” of summer 2023 turned into a bloody disaster for the Kiev regime.

Since the summer of 2023 it has been obvious to anyone with eyes to see it that the Kiev regime is not only losing the war but is doing so very badly. The Biden administration didn’t want to admit this but they knew it very well. The decision to allow the launch of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against targets inside pre 2022 Russian territory was more of a sign of desperation than of any coherent plan. The only plan that truly united the (increasingly fractious) NATO block was that Ukraine should be kept fighting at all costs. What Trump has done is reveal to the world what was already obvious to anyone whose brain has not been hopelessly soaked in propaganda for the last three years. The Ukrainians cannot win and the US has no real way of forcing the issue with the Russians short of all out war which none of the imperialists can fight with a hope of victory.

Trump stating loudly, that Ukraine needs to negotiate with Russia and moving to normalise relations with Moscow is a move with many layers to it. When it comes to Ukraine though the principal driver is the need for the US to downscale its own involvement and look like they haven’t actually lost this thing. The tactic the Trump team seem to be using is to try to restore relations with Moscow whilst telling the Kiev regime it has to settle things with the Russians. This way the US imperialists hope to evade being held responsible for the disastrous defeat that has unfolded in Ukraine with the attendant devastating human consequences. They also wish to avoid looking as if they’ve lost of course. For the British and the Europeans though the attempt by US imperialism to change its priorities is potentially disastrous. The US imperialists think that they can shift their target towards Iran and/or China and have the capacity to do so. The Europeans are sunk though, they needed the destruction of the Russian state and (possibly) the break up of the Russian Federation itself in order that they could stand a chance of gaining some kind of revival by asset stripping it after (at least) the return of Yeltsinism. If this cannot be realised then the British, French and Germans will be left with either having to try to sustain the war themselves, which they cannot do, or actually fight it themselves which they also cannot do. Without US economic and military aid the entire project in Ukraine will come crashing down within a few months. What Starmer is doing now is an elaborate game of bluff. He is trying to secure a renewed US commitment in order that the war can be continued in the vain hope that the sanctions will work and the Putin led system will collapse. All of this is an absolute pipe dream but the British military, intelligence and political establishment are so far gone in their desperate desire for something which can be presented as a victory. As long as the US imperialists maintain their current course towards redirecting their aggressive actions towards China and/or Iran then the British, French and Germans are sunk.

In part 2 of this exploration, next week we will look at how exposed the British ruling class really is over its backing for the Ukraine war.